Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–2 Holstein Kiel

Fortuna Düsseldorf

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Holstein Kiel

4/10/2026

2. Bundesliga · Round 29Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf42%

×Draw24%

Holstein Kiel34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna DüsseldorfExpected goals in this matchHolstein Kiel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.45

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.65

Holstein Kiel

1.45

Fortuna Düsseldorf creates 14% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 118 away

1.77

creates per match

1.58

1.31

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.77

Holstein Kiel

1.58

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.31

Holstein Kiel

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf ↓

Holstein Kiel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw

66%

Fortuna Düsseldorf or Holstein Kiel

76%

Draw or Holstein Kiel

58%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+

22%

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals

81%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals

49%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals

23%

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals

77%

Holstein Kiel 2+ goals

42%

Holstein Kiel 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

56%

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

Holstein Kiel away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.53 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.77 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.65

Holstein Kiel attack 1.58 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more

42%

level

24%

Holstein Kiel scores more

34%

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff