Holstein Kiel 2–1 FC Nurnberg: Result & Stats

Holstein Kiel

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

FC Nurnberg

4/15/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 28Holstein-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Holstein Kiel44%

×Draw26%

FC Nurnberg30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holstein KielExpected goals in this matchFC Nurnberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.19

Holstein Kiel

1.48

FC Nurnberg

1.19

Holstein Kiel creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.32

creates per match

1.23

1.16

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Holstein Kiel

1.32

FC Nurnberg

1.23

allows per match

Holstein Kiel

1.16

FC Nurnberg

1.64

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Holstein Kiel-0.14scores less

FC Nurnberg-0.03on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel ↓

FC Nurnberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel or draw

70%

Holstein Kiel or FC Nurnberg

74%

Draw or FC Nurnberg

56%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+

21%

FC Nurnberg wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals

77%

Holstein Kiel 2+ goals

43%

Holstein Kiel 3+ goals

19%

FC Nurnberg 1+ goals

70%

FC Nurnberg 2+ goals

33%

FC Nurnberg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)

59%

FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.16 · 11 matches

FC Nurnberg away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel attack 1.32 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

FC Nurnberg attack 1.23 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Holstein Kiel scores more

44%

level

26%

FC Nurnberg scores more

30%

Holstein Kiel at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff