FC Nurnberg 0–4 Holstein Kiel: Result & Stats

FC Nurnberg

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Holstein Kiel

N. Remberg 79'

A. Bernhardsson 43'

S. Machino 34'

M. Ivezić 20'

4/6/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 28Max-Morlock-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

FC Nurnberg52%

×Draw24%

Holstein Kiel25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NurnbergExpected goals in this matchHolstein Kiel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.13

FC Nurnberg

1.75

Holstein Kiel

1.13

FC Nurnberg creates 55% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

1.38

creates per match

1.20

1.06

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

FC Nurnberg

1.38

Holstein Kiel

1.20

allows per match

FC Nurnberg

1.06

Holstein Kiel

2.13

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

FC Nurnberg+0.29scores more

Holstein Kiel+0.22scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nurnberg ↓

Holstein Kiel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Nurnberg or draw

75%

FC Nurnberg or Holstein Kiel

76%

Draw or Holstein Kiel

48%

Winning margin

FC Nurnberg wins by 2+

28%

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FC Nurnberg 1+ goals

83%

FC Nurnberg 2+ goals

52%

FC Nurnberg 3+ goals

25%

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals

68%

Holstein Kiel 2+ goals

31%

Holstein Kiel 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)

68%

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nurnberg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.06 · 9 matches

Holstein Kiel away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.13 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nurnberg attack 1.38 + Holstein Kiel defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.75

Holstein Kiel attack 1.20 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Nurnberg scores more

52%

level

24%

Holstein Kiel scores more

25%

FC Nurnberg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Nurnberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. Ivezić

Holstein Kiel · D

8.5

Match Events

5'

12'

12'

20'

30'

Alexander Bernhardsson

32'

M. Schulz← M. Komenda

34'

S. Machino↳ S. Skrzybski

42'

Jens Castrop

43'

A. Bernhardsson↳ S. Skrzybski

45'

Jan Gyamerah

46'

B. Goller← C. Uzun

46'

E. Wekesser← K. Okunuki

61'

N. Remberg← A. Bernhardsson

61'

C. Johansson← P. Erras

69'

E. Valentini← J. Gyamerah

72'

T. Duman← J. Castrop

79'

N. Remberg

80'

Iván Márquez← F. Flick

80'

M. Kirkeskov← T. Rothe

80'

J. Arp← S. Skrzybski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCHolstein

Overview

29%Possession71%

6Total Shots23

4Corners9

7Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots23

1On Target8

3Off Target10

2Blocked5

3Inside Box17

3Outside Box6

Passing

29%Possession71%

283Total Passes711

233Accurate Passes673

82%Pass Accuracy95%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls12

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3