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Holstein Kiel vs FC Magdeburg — DFB Pokal 2018

Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
FC Magdeburg
FC Magdeburg
11/1/2023DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 2nd RoundHolstein-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Holstein Kiel21%
×Draw22%
FC Magdeburg56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holstein Kiel
1.07
FC Magdeburg
1.88

FC Magdeburg creates 76% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Holstein Kiel
0.75
FC Magdeburg
2.00

allows per match

Holstein Kiel
1.75
FC Magdeburg
1.40

finishing

Holstein Kiel+0.00on par
FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel ↓

FC Magdeburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel or draw
44%
Holstein Kiel or FC Magdeburg
78%
Draw or FC Magdeburg
79%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
8%
FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
66%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
29%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
9%
FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
85%
FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
56%
FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
28%
FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

FC Magdeburg away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel attack 0.75 + FC Magdeburg defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.07

FC Magdeburg attack 2.00 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Holstein Kiel scores more
21%
level
22%
FC Magdeburg scores more
56%

FC Magdeburg at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DFB Pokal: Holstein Kiel 2–2 FC Magdeburg

Holstein Kiel and FC Magdeburg drew 2-2 in DFB Pokal on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Holstein-Stadion in Kiel.