FC Magdeburg 1–1 Holstein Kiel: Result & Stats

FC Magdeburg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Holstein Kiel

2/2/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 20MDCC-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

FC Magdeburg37%

×Draw25%

Holstein Kiel39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC MagdeburgExpected goals in this matchHolstein Kiel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.50

FC Magdeburg

1.45

Holstein Kiel

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 119 away

1.38

creates per match

1.59

1.42

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

FC Magdeburg

1.38

Holstein Kiel

1.59

allows per match

FC Magdeburg

1.42

Holstein Kiel

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Magdeburg ↓

Holstein Kiel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FC Magdeburg or draw

61%

FC Magdeburg or Holstein Kiel

75%

Draw or Holstein Kiel

63%

Winning margin

FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

17%

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

77%

FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

42%

FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

18%

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals

78%

Holstein Kiel 2+ goals

44%

Holstein Kiel 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

49%

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Magdeburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

Holstein Kiel away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.52 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Magdeburg attack 1.38 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Holstein Kiel attack 1.59 + FC Magdeburg defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Magdeburg scores more

37%

level

25%

Holstein Kiel scores more

39%

Holstein Kiel at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff