Holstein Kiel U19 3–1 Eintr. Norderstedt U19

Holstein Kiel U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

I. Matene 90+3'

K. Hahn 84'

K. Tack 16'

K. Perehudov 89'

2/23/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 4Leistungszentrum Projensdorf Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Holstein Kiel U1949%

×Draw19%

Eintr. Norderstedt U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holstein Kiel U19Expected goals in this matchEintr. Norderstedt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.96

Holstein Kiel U19

2.48

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

1.96

Holstein Kiel U19 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 6 away

1.47

creates per match

1.83

2.08

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Holstein Kiel U19

1.47

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

1.83

allows per match

Holstein Kiel U19

2.08

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Eintr. Norderstedt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel U19 ↓

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel U19 or draw

69%

Holstein Kiel U19 or Eintr. Norderstedt U19

81%

Draw or Eintr. Norderstedt U19

51%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

30%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

92%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

70%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

44%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 1+ goals

86%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 2+ goals

58%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel U19 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.08 · 60 matches

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 away — creates 1.83, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.47 + Eintr. Norderstedt U19 defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.48

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 attack 1.83 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

49%

level

19%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 scores more

31%

Holstein Kiel U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Holstein Kiel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

K. Tack

59'

K. Hahn← M. Meyer

66'

A. Diachun← L. Alpsoy

66'

J. Faizy← M. Mbodje

71'

B. Asik← K. Tack

71'

I. Matene← A. Abdulla

71'

K. Kortum← Y. Zöllner

73'

J. Soobin← B. Appiah

76'

H. Westphal← A. Assameur

76'

V. Lückner← M. Schmitz

84'

K. Hahn

87'

D. Busch← A. Seidi

87'

H. Riebau← D. Duah

87'

K. Perehudov← L. Rikanovic

89'

K. Perehudov

90+3'

I. Matene

Holstein

Eintr.

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Kaps

59'▲K. Hahn←▼M. Meyer

71'▲B. Asik←▼K. Tack

71'▲I. Matene←▼A. Abdulla

71'▲K. Kortum←▼Y. Zöllner

76'▲H. Westphal←▼A. Assameur

76'▲V. Lückner←▼M. Schmitz

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

HahnAsikMateneKortumWestphalLücknerAhlers

Manager: Q. Bajraktaraj

66'▲A. Diachun←▼L. Alpsoy

66'▲J. Faizy←▼M. Mbodje

73'▲J. Soobin←▼B. Appiah

87'▲D. Busch←▼A. Seidi

87'▲H. Riebau←▼D. Duah

87'▲K. Perehudov←▼L. Rikanovic

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 substitutes

DiachunFaizySoobinBuschRiebauPerehudovRode

Match Recap: Holstein Kiel U19 vs Eintr. Norderstedt U19

Holstein Kiel U19 beat Eintr. Norderstedt U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 23, 2025.

Goals: K. Tack (16'), K. Hahn (84'), K. Perehudov (89'), I. Matene (90+3').

The match was played at Leistungszentrum Projensdorf Kunstrasen in Kiel.

Holstein Kiel U19 vs Eintr. Norderstedt U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Holstein Kiel U19 vs Eintr. Norderstedt U19