Eintr. Norderstedt U19 2–4 Holstein Kiel U19

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Holstein Kiel U19

D. Duah 76'

H. Lauterbach 28'

H. Westphal 90+2'

K. Kortum 83'

Y. Zöllner 82'

K. Tack 2'

4/26/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 11Kunstrasenplatz Garstedt 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Eintr. Norderstedt U1941%

×Draw19%

Holstein Kiel U1940%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintr. Norderstedt U19Expected goals in this matchHolstein Kiel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

2.39

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

2.44

Holstein Kiel U19

2.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 61 away

2.17

creates per match

1.61

3.17

allows per match

2.70

creates per match

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

2.17

Holstein Kiel U19

1.61

allows per match

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

3.17

Holstein Kiel U19

2.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintr. Norderstedt U19+0.00on par

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 ↓

Holstein Kiel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 or draw

60%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 or Holstein Kiel U19

81%

Draw or Holstein Kiel U19

59%

Winning margin

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 wins by 2+

24%

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 1+ goals

91%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 2+ goals

70%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 3+ goals

43%

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

91%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

69%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 at home — creates 2.17, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Holstein Kiel U19 away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.70 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 attack 2.17 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.44

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.61 + Eintr. Norderstedt U19 defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 scores more

41%

level

19%

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

40%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Eintr. Norderstedt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

28'

46'

56'

70'

70'

71'

O. Demchuk← L. Alpsoy

76'

D. Duah

82'

K. Perehudov← A. Seidi

82'

Y. Zöllner

83'

B. Asik← M. Schmitz

83'

H. Westphal← Y. Zöllner

83'

K. Kortum

90+2'

H. Westphal

Eintr.

Holstein

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Q. Bajraktaraj

71'▲O. Demchuk←▼L. Alpsoy

82'▲K. Perehudov←▼A. Seidi

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 substitutes

DemchukPerehudovWardiusRalfsJungChenFrimpong

Manager: J. Kaps

46'▲A. Kusyi←▼V. Lückner

56'▲K. Hahn←▼A. Abdulla

70'▲I. Matene←▼M. Meyer

70'▲K. Kortum←▼K. Tack

83'▲B. Asik←▼M. Schmitz

83'▲H. Westphal←▼Y. Zöllner

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

KusyiHahnMateneKortumAsikWestphalKaiser

U19 Bundesliga: Eintr. Norderstedt U19 2–4 Holstein Kiel U19

Holstein Kiel U19 beat Eintr. Norderstedt U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on April 26, 2025.

Goals: K. Tack (2'), H. Lauterbach (28'), D. Duah (76'), Y. Zöllner (82'), K. Kortum (83'), H. Westphal (90+2').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Garstedt 2 in Norderstedt.

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Eintr. Norderstedt U19 2–4 Holstein Kiel U19