Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Holstebro vs Aarhus Fremad II — League #127 2026

Holstebro
Holstebro
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Aarhus Fremad II
Aarhus Fremad II
9/20/2025League #127League #127 · Group 4 - 7Krøyer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Holstebro46%
×Draw20%
Aarhus Fremad II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holstebro
2.33
Aarhus Fremad II
2.00

Holstebro creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Holstebro
2.67
Aarhus Fremad II
2.33

allows per match

Holstebro
1.67
Aarhus Fremad II
2.00

finishing

Holstebro+0.00on par
Aarhus Fremad II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstebro ↓

Aarhus Fremad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Holstebro or draw
66%
Holstebro or Aarhus Fremad II
80%
Draw or Aarhus Fremad II
54%

Winning margin

Holstebro wins by 2+
27%
Aarhus Fremad II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Holstebro 1+ goals
90%
Holstebro 2+ goals
67%
Holstebro 3+ goals
41%
Aarhus Fremad II 1+ goals
86%
Aarhus Fremad II 2+ goals
59%
Aarhus Fremad II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Holstebro (draw refunded)
57%
Aarhus Fremad II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstebro at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Aarhus Fremad II away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstebro attack 2.67 + Aarhus Fremad II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Aarhus Fremad II attack 2.33 + Holstebro defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Holstebro scores more
46%
level
20%
Aarhus Fremad II scores more
34%

Holstebro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Holstebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Holstebro vs Aarhus Fremad II

Holstebro beat Aarhus Fremad II 4-2 in League #127 on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Krøyer Park in Holstebro.