Aarhus Fremad II 2–0 Holstebro: Result & Stats

Aarhus Fremad II

FT

2 – 0

Holstebro

11/2/2019

League #127 · Group 4 - 14Riisvangen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Aarhus Fremad II45%

×Draw21%

Holstebro34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aarhus Fremad IIExpected goals in this matchHolstebro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.78

Aarhus Fremad II

2.06

Holstebro

1.78

Aarhus Fremad II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

2.00

creates per match

2.13

1.44

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad II

2.00

Holstebro

2.13

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad II

1.44

Holstebro

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aarhus Fremad II+0.00on par

Holstebro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad II ↓

Holstebro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad II or draw

66%

Aarhus Fremad II or Holstebro

79%

Draw or Holstebro

55%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad II wins by 2+

25%

Holstebro wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad II 1+ goals

87%

Aarhus Fremad II 2+ goals

61%

Aarhus Fremad II 3+ goals

34%

Holstebro 1+ goals

83%

Holstebro 2+ goals

53%

Holstebro 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad II (draw refunded)

57%

Holstebro (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Holstebro away — creates 2.13, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad II attack 2.00 + Holstebro defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.06

Holstebro attack 2.13 + Aarhus Fremad II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aarhus Fremad II scores more

45%

level

21%

Holstebro scores more

34%

Aarhus Fremad II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff