Holstebro 3–2 Aalborg Freja: Result & Stats

Holstebro

FT

3 – 2

Aalborg Freja

10/31/2015

League #126 · Round 13Holstebro Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Holstebro61%

×Draw19%

Aalborg Freja19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HolstebroExpected goals in this matchAalborg Freja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.25

Holstebro

2.35

Aalborg Freja

1.25

Holstebro creates 88% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

3.20

creates per match

Holstebro

1.50

Aalborg Freja

1.00

allows per match

Holstebro

1.50

Aalborg Freja

3.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstebro+0.00on par

Aalborg Freja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstebro ↓

Aalborg Freja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Holstebro or draw

81%

Holstebro or Aalborg Freja

81%

Draw or Aalborg Freja

39%

Winning margin

Holstebro wins by 2+

39%

Aalborg Freja wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Holstebro 1+ goals

90%

Holstebro 2+ goals

68%

Holstebro 3+ goals

41%

Aalborg Freja 1+ goals

71%

Aalborg Freja 2+ goals

36%

Aalborg Freja 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Holstebro (draw refunded)

76%

Aalborg Freja (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstebro at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Aalborg Freja away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstebro attack 1.50 + Aalborg Freja defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.35

Aalborg Freja attack 1.00 + Holstebro defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Holstebro scores more

61%

level

19%

Aalborg Freja scores more

19%

Holstebro at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Holstebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff