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Aalborg Freja vs Holstebro — League #127 2026

Aalborg Freja
Aalborg Freja
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Holstebro
Holstebro
9/27/2025League #127League #127 · Group 4 - 8Frejaparken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Aalborg Freja16%
×Draw17%
Holstebro66%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalborg Freja
1.23
Holstebro
2.60

Holstebro creates 111% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Aalborg Freja
0.67
Holstebro
2.21

allows per match

Aalborg Freja
3.00
Holstebro
1.79

finishing

Aalborg Freja+0.00on par
Holstebro+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalborg Freja ↓

Holstebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Aalborg Freja or draw
34%
Aalborg Freja or Holstebro
83%
Draw or Holstebro
84%

Winning margin

Aalborg Freja wins by 2+
6%
Holstebro wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Aalborg Freja 1+ goals
71%
Aalborg Freja 2+ goals
35%
Aalborg Freja 3+ goals
13%
Holstebro 1+ goals
92%
Holstebro 2+ goals
73%
Holstebro 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Aalborg Freja (draw refunded)
20%
Holstebro (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalborg Freja at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Holstebro away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalborg Freja attack 0.67 + Holstebro defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.23

Holstebro attack 2.21 + Aalborg Freja defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Aalborg Freja scores more
16%
level
17%
Holstebro scores more
66%

Holstebro at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Holstebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aalborg Freja vs Holstebro

Holstebro beat Aalborg Freja 3-1 in League #127 on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Frejaparken in Aalborg.