Hollenbach 2–2 Göppinger SV: Result & Stats

Hollenbach

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Göppinger SV

11/11/2023

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 17Jako-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hollenbach43%

×Draw23%

Göppinger SV34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HollenbachExpected goals in this matchGöppinger SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.48

Hollenbach

1.69

Göppinger SV

1.48

Hollenbach creates 14% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 76 away

1.90

creates per match

1.49

1.47

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Hollenbach

1.90

Göppinger SV

1.49

allows per match

Hollenbach

1.47

Göppinger SV

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hollenbach+0.00on par

Göppinger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hollenbach ↓

Göppinger SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hollenbach or draw

66%

Hollenbach or Göppinger SV

77%

Draw or Göppinger SV

57%

Winning margin

Hollenbach wins by 2+

22%

Göppinger SV wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hollenbach 1+ goals

82%

Hollenbach 2+ goals

50%

Hollenbach 3+ goals

24%

Göppinger SV 1+ goals

77%

Göppinger SV 2+ goals

43%

Göppinger SV 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Hollenbach (draw refunded)

56%

Göppinger SV (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hollenbach at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

Göppinger SV away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hollenbach attack 1.90 + Göppinger SV defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.69

Göppinger SV attack 1.49 + Hollenbach defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hollenbach scores more

43%

level

23%

Göppinger SV scores more

34%

Hollenbach at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hollenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff