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Göppinger SV vs Hollenbach — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Göppinger SV
Göppinger SV
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Hollenbach
Hollenbach
9/13/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 8Stadion SV Göppingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Göppinger SV55%
×Draw21%
Hollenbach23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göppinger SV
2.06
Hollenbach
1.27

Göppinger SV creates 62% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 68 away

creates per match

Göppinger SV
2.05
Hollenbach
1.26

allows per match

Göppinger SV
1.27
Hollenbach
2.07

finishing

Göppinger SV+0.00on par
Hollenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göppinger SV ↓

Hollenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Göppinger SV or draw
77%
Göppinger SV or Hollenbach
79%
Draw or Hollenbach
45%

Winning margin

Göppinger SV wins by 2+
33%
Hollenbach wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Göppinger SV 1+ goals
87%
Göppinger SV 2+ goals
61%
Göppinger SV 3+ goals
34%
Hollenbach 1+ goals
72%
Hollenbach 2+ goals
36%
Hollenbach 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Göppinger SV (draw refunded)
70%
Hollenbach (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göppinger SV at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Hollenbach away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.07 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göppinger SV attack 2.05 + Hollenbach defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.06

Hollenbach attack 1.26 + Göppinger SV defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Göppinger SV scores more
55%
level
21%
Hollenbach scores more
23%

Göppinger SV at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Göppinger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Göppinger SV 2–4 Hollenbach

Hollenbach beat Göppinger SV 4-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion SV Göppingen in Göppingen.