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Hollenbach vs Fellbach — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Hollenbach
Hollenbach
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Fellbach
Fellbach
I. Beslic 54'
N. Dorr 22'
G. D'Aleo 81'
P. Fossi 28'
10/3/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 11Jako-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hollenbach59%
×Draw20%
Fellbach21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hollenbach
2.33
Fellbach
1.35

Hollenbach creates 73% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Hollenbach
1.90
Fellbach
1.24

allows per match

Hollenbach
1.47
Fellbach
2.76

finishing

Hollenbach+0.00on par
Fellbach+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hollenbach ↓

Fellbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Hollenbach or draw
79%
Hollenbach or Fellbach
80%
Draw or Fellbach
41%

Winning margin

Hollenbach wins by 2+
37%
Fellbach wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hollenbach 1+ goals
90%
Hollenbach 2+ goals
67%
Hollenbach 3+ goals
41%
Fellbach 1+ goals
74%
Fellbach 2+ goals
39%
Fellbach 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hollenbach (draw refunded)
73%
Fellbach (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hollenbach at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

Fellbach away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hollenbach attack 1.90 + Fellbach defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.33

Fellbach attack 1.24 + Hollenbach defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hollenbach scores more
59%
level
20%
Fellbach scores more
21%

Hollenbach at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hollenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
N. Dorr
28'
P. Fossi
54'
I. Beslic
81'
G. D'Aleo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Hollenbach 2–2 Fellbach

Hollenbach and Fellbach drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on October 3, 2024.

Goals: N. Dorr (22'), P. Fossi (28'), I. Beslic (54'), G. D'Aleo (81').

The match was played at Jako-Arena in Mulfingen.