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Fellbach vs Hollenbach — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Fellbach
Fellbach
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Hollenbach
Hollenbach
P. Fossi 39'
M. Specht 90+1', 55'
4/19/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 28Kunstrasenplatz 1 Fellbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fellbach32%
×Draw23%
Hollenbach44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fellbach
1.44
Hollenbach
1.72

Hollenbach creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Fellbach
0.82
Hollenbach
1.26

allows per match

Fellbach
2.18
Hollenbach
2.07

finishing

Fellbach+0.00on par
Hollenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fellbach ↓

Hollenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fellbach or draw
56%
Fellbach or Hollenbach
77%
Draw or Hollenbach
68%

Winning margin

Fellbach wins by 2+
15%
Hollenbach wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Fellbach 1+ goals
76%
Fellbach 2+ goals
42%
Fellbach 3+ goals
18%
Hollenbach 1+ goals
82%
Hollenbach 2+ goals
51%
Hollenbach 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Fellbach (draw refunded)
42%
Hollenbach (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fellbach at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Hollenbach away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.07 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fellbach attack 0.82 + Hollenbach defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hollenbach attack 1.26 + Fellbach defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fellbach scores more
32%
level
23%
Hollenbach scores more
44%

Hollenbach at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hollenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
P. Fossi
55'
M. Specht
90+1'
M. Specht

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Fellbach 1–2 Hollenbach

Hollenbach beat Fellbach 2-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on April 19, 2025.

Goals: P. Fossi (39'), M. Specht (55', 90+1').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz 1 Fellbach in Fellbach.