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Holešov vs HFK Olomouc — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Holešov
Holešov
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
HFK Olomouc
HFK Olomouc
8/24/20244. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 4Stadion Střelnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Holešov54%
×Draw21%
HFK Olomouc25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holešov
2.16
HFK Olomouc
1.44

Holešov creates 50% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 66 away

creates per match

Holešov
1.87
HFK Olomouc
1.21

allows per match

Holešov
1.68
HFK Olomouc
2.45

finishing

Holešov+0.00on par
HFK Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holešov ↓

HFK Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Holešov or draw
75%
Holešov or HFK Olomouc
79%
Draw or HFK Olomouc
46%

Winning margin

Holešov wins by 2+
32%
HFK Olomouc wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Holešov 1+ goals
88%
Holešov 2+ goals
63%
Holešov 3+ goals
36%
HFK Olomouc 1+ goals
76%
HFK Olomouc 2+ goals
42%
HFK Olomouc 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Holešov (draw refunded)
68%
HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holešov at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

HFK Olomouc away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holešov attack 1.87 + HFK Olomouc defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.16

HFK Olomouc attack 1.21 + Holešov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Holešov scores more
54%
level
21%
HFK Olomouc scores more
25%

Holešov at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Holešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Holešov vs HFK Olomouc

HFK Olomouc beat Holešov 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie E on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Střelnice in Holešov.