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HFK Olomouc vs Holešov — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

HFK Olomouc
HFK Olomouc
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Holešov
Holešov
4/20/20244. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 22Stadion 1. HFK Olomouc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

HFK Olomouc40%
×Draw24%
Holešov36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HFK Olomouc
1.58
Holešov
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 69 away

creates per match

HFK Olomouc
1.31
Holešov
1.49

allows per match

HFK Olomouc
1.52
Holešov
1.84

finishing

HFK Olomouc+0.00on par
Holešov+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HFK Olomouc ↓

Holešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

HFK Olomouc or draw
64%
HFK Olomouc or Holešov
76%
Draw or Holešov
60%

Winning margin

HFK Olomouc wins by 2+
20%
Holešov wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

HFK Olomouc 1+ goals
79%
HFK Olomouc 2+ goals
47%
HFK Olomouc 3+ goals
21%
Holešov 1+ goals
78%
Holešov 2+ goals
44%
Holešov 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)
52%
Holešov (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HFK Olomouc at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.52 · 67 matches

Holešov away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HFK Olomouc attack 1.31 + Holešov defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.58

Holešov attack 1.49 + HFK Olomouc defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

HFK Olomouc scores more
40%
level
24%
Holešov scores more
36%

HFK Olomouc at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "HFK Olomouc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HFK Olomouc vs Holešov

HFK Olomouc and Holešov drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie E on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion 1. HFK Olomouc in Olomouc.