Hogar Alcarreño 0–3 Guadalajara: Result & Stats

Hogar Alcarreño

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Guadalajara

9/12/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 2Estadio Municipal Fuente De La Niña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hogar Alcarreño21%

×Draw24%

Guadalajara54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hogar AlcarreñoExpected goals in this matchGuadalajara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.66

Hogar Alcarreño

0.93

Guadalajara

1.66

Guadalajara creates 78% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 43 away

0.94

creates per match

1.37

1.94

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Hogar Alcarreño

0.94

Guadalajara

1.37

allows per match

Hogar Alcarreño

1.94

Guadalajara

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hogar Alcarreño+0.00on par

Guadalajara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hogar Alcarreño ↓

Guadalajara →

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hogar Alcarreño or draw

46%

Hogar Alcarreño or Guadalajara

76%

Draw or Guadalajara

79%

Winning margin

Hogar Alcarreño wins by 2+

Guadalajara wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Hogar Alcarreño 1+ goals

61%

Hogar Alcarreño 2+ goals

24%

Hogar Alcarreño 3+ goals

Guadalajara 1+ goals

81%

Guadalajara 2+ goals

49%

Guadalajara 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Hogar Alcarreño (draw refunded)

28%

Guadalajara (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hogar Alcarreño at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Guadalajara away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.91 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hogar Alcarreño attack 0.94 + Guadalajara defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.93

Guadalajara attack 1.37 + Hogar Alcarreño defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hogar Alcarreño scores more

21%

level

24%

Guadalajara scores more

54%

Guadalajara at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Guadalajara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Hogar Alcarreño 0–3 Guadalajara

Guadalajara beat Hogar Alcarreño 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Fuente De La Niña in Guadalajara.

Hogar Alcarreño vs Guadalajara — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Hogar Alcarreño 0–3 Guadalajara