Guadalajara 5–1 Hogar Alcarreño: Result & Stats

Guadalajara

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hogar Alcarreño

1/26/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 19Estadio Pedro Escartín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Guadalajara80%

×Draw13%

Hogar Alcarreño6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuadalajaraExpected goals in this matchHogar Alcarreño

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

0.61

Guadalajara

2.63

Hogar Alcarreño

0.61

Guadalajara creates 331% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 17 away

1.79

creates per match

0.65

0.58

allows per match

3.47

creates per match

Guadalajara

1.79

Hogar Alcarreño

0.65

allows per match

Guadalajara

0.58

Hogar Alcarreño

3.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guadalajara+0.00on par

Hogar Alcarreño+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara ↓

Hogar Alcarreño →

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–010%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–014%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–08%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Guadalajara or draw

94%

Guadalajara or Hogar Alcarreño

87%

Draw or Hogar Alcarreño

20%

Winning margin

Guadalajara wins by 2+

59%

Hogar Alcarreño wins by 2+

Team goals

Guadalajara 1+ goals

93%

Guadalajara 2+ goals

73%

Guadalajara 3+ goals

48%

Hogar Alcarreño 1+ goals

46%

Hogar Alcarreño 2+ goals

13%

Hogar Alcarreño 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Guadalajara (draw refunded)

93%

Hogar Alcarreño (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.58 · 43 matches

Hogar Alcarreño away — creates 0.65, concedes 3.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara attack 1.79 + Hogar Alcarreño defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.63

Hogar Alcarreño attack 0.65 + Guadalajara defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 80%?"

Guadalajara scores more

80%

level

13%

Hogar Alcarreño scores more

Guadalajara at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Guadalajara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff