Seongnam FC 3–0 Suwon City FC: Result & Stats

Seongnam FC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Suwon City FC

7/23/2017

K League 2 · K-League Challenge - Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Seongnam FC29%

×Draw25%

Suwon City FC46%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seongnam FCExpected goals in this matchSuwon City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.58

Seongnam FC

1.19

Suwon City FC

1.58

Suwon City FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 23 away

1.17

creates per match

1.91

1.25

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Seongnam FC

1.17

Suwon City FC

1.91

allows per match

Seongnam FC

1.25

Suwon City FC

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seongnam FC+0.00on par

Suwon City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seongnam FC ↓

Suwon City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Seongnam FC or draw

54%

Seongnam FC or Suwon City FC

75%

Draw or Suwon City FC

71%

Winning margin

Seongnam FC wins by 2+

12%

Suwon City FC wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Seongnam FC 1+ goals

70%

Seongnam FC 2+ goals

33%

Seongnam FC 3+ goals

12%

Suwon City FC 1+ goals

79%

Suwon City FC 2+ goals

47%

Suwon City FC 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Seongnam FC (draw refunded)

38%

Suwon City FC (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seongnam FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.25 · 65 matches

Suwon City FC away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seongnam FC attack 1.17 + Suwon City FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Suwon City FC attack 1.91 + Seongnam FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Seongnam FC scores more

29%

level

25%

Suwon City FC scores more

46%

Suwon City FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Suwon City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff