Hoffenheim U19 1–1 Hamburger SV U19: Result & Stats

Hoffenheim U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hamburger SV U19

Z. Tairi 23'

A. Riedel 56'

2/1/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 1Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Hoffenheim U1956%

×Draw19%

Hamburger SV U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hoffenheim U19Expected goals in this matchHamburger SV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.67

Hoffenheim U19

2.52

Hamburger SV U19

1.67

Hoffenheim U19 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 70 away

3.14

creates per match

1.97

1.37

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Hoffenheim U19

3.14

Hamburger SV U19

1.97

allows per match

Hoffenheim U19

1.37

Hamburger SV U19

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoffenheim U19 ↓

Hamburger SV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Hoffenheim U19 or draw

75%

Hoffenheim U19 or Hamburger SV U19

81%

Draw or Hamburger SV U19

44%

Winning margin

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+

36%

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals

92%

Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals

71%

Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals

45%

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

81%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

50%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoffenheim U19 at home — creates 3.14, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

Hamburger SV U19 away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.91 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoffenheim U19 attack 3.14 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.52

Hamburger SV U19 attack 1.97 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hoffenheim U19 scores more

56%

level

19%

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

25%

Hoffenheim U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Z. Tairi

46'

M. Penda← L. Erlein

46'

M. Reimers← N. Tuppeck

56'

A. Riedel

66'

Kilian Machado← C. Nana-Sarhene

68'

80'

85'

90+2'

90+2'

Hoffenheim

Hamburger

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: T. Nubbemeyer

46'▲M. Penda←▼L. Erlein

68'▲T. Poller←▼K. Čížek

80'▲A. Honajzer←▼M. Onos

85'▲K. Syutin←▼M. Penda

Hoffenheim U19 substitutes

PendaPollerHonajzerSyutinGebertSchönigHofbauer

Manager: L. Pfeiffer

46'▲M. Reimers←▼N. Tuppeck

66'▲Kilian Machado←▼C. Nana-Sarhene

90+2'▲J. Ade←▼H. Schümann

90+2'▲J. Bugaj←▼A. Riedel

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

ReimersMachadoAdeBugajRichardtBrätzHartig