Hamburger SV U19 3–1 Hoffenheim U19: Result & Stats

Hamburger SV U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hoffenheim U19

N. Tuppeck 80', 78'

K. Ojo 63'

J. Wähling 45'

3/9/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 6Kunstrasen am Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Hamburger SV U1937%

×Draw20%

Hoffenheim U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SV U19Expected goals in this matchHoffenheim U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

2.26

Hamburger SV U19

2.09

Hoffenheim U19

2.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 71 away

2.42

creates per match

2.68

1.84

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Hamburger SV U19

2.42

Hoffenheim U19

2.68

allows per match

Hamburger SV U19

1.84

Hoffenheim U19

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV U19 ↓

Hoffenheim U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Hamburger SV U19 or draw

57%

Hamburger SV U19 or Hoffenheim U19

80%

Draw or Hoffenheim U19

63%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

20%

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

88%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

62%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

34%

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals

89%

Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals

66%

Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV U19 at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

Hoffenheim U19 away — creates 2.68, concedes 1.76 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.42 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.09

Hoffenheim U19 attack 2.68 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

37%

level

20%

Hoffenheim U19 scores more

43%

Hoffenheim U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

K. Ojo← J. Bugaj

45'

J. Wähling

46'

D. Richardt← N. Adekunle

63'

K. Ojo

78'

N. Tuppeck

79'

J. Hartig← M. Reimers

80'

N. Tuppeck

83'

A. Honajzer← L. Krasniqi

87'

J. Gandert← C. Nana-Sarhene

Hamburger

Hoffenheim

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: L. Pfeiffer

38'▲K. Ojo←▼J. Bugaj

46'▲D. Richardt←▼N. Adekunle

79'▲J. Hartig←▼M. Reimers

87'▲J. Gandert←▼C. Nana-Sarhene

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

OjoRichardtHartigGandertBuljubašićSuljevicLewinski

Manager: T. Nubbemeyer

83'▲A. Honajzer←▼L. Krasniqi

Hoffenheim U19 substitutes

HonajzerHofbauerGebertSyutinPacaSchönigTaschetta