Hoffenheim U19 1–0 Greuther Fürth U19

Hoffenheim U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Greuther Fürth U19

L. Krasniqi 55'

10/28/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 9Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Hoffenheim U1964%

×Draw17%

Greuther Fürth U1919%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hoffenheim U19Expected goals in this matchGreuther Fürth U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.74

1.45

Hoffenheim U19

2.74

Greuther Fürth U19

1.45

Hoffenheim U19 creates 89% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 67 away

3.17

creates per match

1.54

1.36

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Hoffenheim U19

3.17

Greuther Fürth U19

1.54

allows per match

Hoffenheim U19

1.36

Greuther Fürth U19

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoffenheim U19 ↓

Greuther Fürth U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Hoffenheim U19 or draw

81%

Hoffenheim U19 or Greuther Fürth U19

83%

Draw or Greuther Fürth U19

36%

Winning margin

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+

43%

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals

93%

Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals

75%

Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals

51%

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals

77%

Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals

42%

Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoffenheim U19 at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.36 · 78 matches

Greuther Fürth U19 away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.31 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoffenheim U19 attack 3.17 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.74

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.54 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Hoffenheim U19 scores more

64%

level

17%

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more

19%

Hoffenheim U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

L. Krasniqi

63'

R. Wagner← Blessing Makanda

63'

O. Enomamiuse← T. Baierlein

78'

J. Wähling← L. Krasniqi

78'

T. Poller← M. Onos

78'

G. Nkowa← A. Imeri

86'

M. Steinheil← J. Chirinos

90+2'

M. Faß← M. Moerstedt

Hoffenheim

Greuther

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Krasniqi

Manager: T. Nubbemeyer

63'▲R. Wagner←▼Blessing Makanda

78'▲J. Wähling←▼L. Krasniqi

78'▲T. Poller←▼M. Onos

90+2'▲M. Faß←▼M. Moerstedt

Hoffenheim U19 substitutes

WagnerWählingPollerFaßLadeArnstHör

Manager: R. Hilbert

63'▲O. Enomamiuse←▼T. Baierlein

78'▲G. Nkowa←▼A. Imeri

86'▲M. Steinheil←▼J. Chirinos

Greuther Fürth U19 substitutes

EnomamiuseNkowaSteinheilDesićCisséHüttlMarita