Greuther Fürth U19 0–6 Hoffenheim U19

Greuther Fürth U19

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 1

Hoffenheim U19

J. Wähling 77', 53'

M. Rehuš 62'

Blessing Makanda 55', 49', 6'

4/13/2024

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 22Charly-Mai-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Greuther Fürth U1926%

×Draw20%

Hoffenheim U1955%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greuther Fürth U19Expected goals in this matchHoffenheim U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

2.38

Greuther Fürth U19

1.60

Hoffenheim U19

2.38

Hoffenheim U19 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 76 away

1.45

creates per match

2.79

1.98

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Greuther Fürth U19

1.45

Hoffenheim U19

2.79

allows per match

Greuther Fürth U19

1.98

Hoffenheim U19

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth U19 ↓

Hoffenheim U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth U19 or draw

45%

Greuther Fürth U19 or Hoffenheim U19

80%

Draw or Hoffenheim U19

74%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+

12%

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals

80%

Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals

47%

Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals

22%

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals

91%

Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals

68%

Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.98 · 65 matches

Hoffenheim U19 away — creates 2.79, concedes 1.75 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.45 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.60

Hoffenheim U19 attack 2.79 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more

26%

level

20%

Hoffenheim U19 scores more

55%

Hoffenheim U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Blessing Makanda

46'

J. Wähling← L. Krasniqi

49'

Blessing Makanda

53'

J. Engel← R. Wuttke

53'

T. Baierlein← J. Chirinos

53'

J. Wähling

55'

Blessing Makanda

59'

D. Girmann← L. Erlein

59'

Z. Tairi← T. Poller

60'

C. Cissé← M. Steinheil

60'

N. Held← D. Pfaffenrot

62'

M. Rehuš

64'

D. Arnst← Blessing Makanda

69'

O. Enomamiuse← R. Marita

69'

J. Fields← K. Frees

77'

J. Wähling

Greuther

Hoffenheim

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Hilbert

53'▲J. Engel←▼R. Wuttke

53'▲T. Baierlein←▼J. Chirinos

60'▲C. Cissé←▼M. Steinheil

60'▲N. Held←▼D. Pfaffenrot

69'▲O. Enomamiuse←▼R. Marita

Greuther Fürth U19 substitutes

EngelBaierleinCisséHeldEnomamiuseTeissierMenapace

Manager: T. Nubbemeyer

46'▲J. Wähling←▼L. Krasniqi

59'▲D. Girmann←▼L. Erlein

59'▲Z. Tairi←▼T. Poller

64'▲D. Arnst←▼Blessing Makanda

69'▲J. Fields←▼K. Frees

Hoffenheim U19 substitutes

WählingGirmannTairiArnstFieldsPhilipp