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Hoffenheim U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hoffenheim U19
Hoffenheim U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bayer Leverkusen U19
Bayer Leverkusen U19
4/18/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Hoffenheim U1949%
×Draw20%
Bayer Leverkusen U1931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoffenheim U19
2.27
Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.77

Hoffenheim U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 66 away

creates per match

Hoffenheim U19
3.17
Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.18

allows per match

Hoffenheim U19
1.36
Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.36

finishing

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par
Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoffenheim U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Hoffenheim U19 or draw
69%
Hoffenheim U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19
80%
Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19
51%

Winning margin

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+
29%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals
90%
Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals
66%
Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals
39%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals
83%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals
53%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)
62%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoffenheim U19 at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.36 · 78 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.36 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoffenheim U19 attack 3.17 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.27

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.18 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hoffenheim U19 scores more
49%
level
20%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more
31%

Hoffenheim U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Hoffenheim
Bayer
T. Nubbemeyer
Manager: T. Nubbemeyer
Kevin Brok
Manager: Kevin Brok

Match Recap: Hoffenheim U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19

Hoffenheim U19 beat Bayer Leverkusen U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 18, 2026.