Bayer Leverkusen U19 4–0 Hoffenheim U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hoffenheim U19

A. Stepanov 90', 22'

J. Mensah 71'

F. Onyeka 62'

2/23/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 4Ulrich-Haberland-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen U1943%

×Draw20%

Hoffenheim U1937%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayer Leverkusen U19Expected goals in this matchHoffenheim U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

2.02

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.19

Hoffenheim U19

2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 76 away

2.62

creates per match

2.79

1.26

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.62

Hoffenheim U19

2.79

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.26

Hoffenheim U19

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen U19 ↓

Hoffenheim U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or draw

63%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or Hoffenheim U19

80%

Draw or Hoffenheim U19

57%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

25%

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

89%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

64%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

37%

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals

87%

Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals

60%

Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Hoffenheim U19 away — creates 2.79, concedes 1.75 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.62 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.19

Hoffenheim U19 attack 2.79 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

43%

level

20%

Hoffenheim U19 scores more

37%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

A. Stepanov

46'

J. Mensah← A. Sarco

46'

V. Taschetta← G. Pelzer

59'

J. Kurowski← F. Pohl

59'

B. Makanda← M. Moore

59'

L. Wagenbach← K. Syutin

62'

F. Onyeka

71'

J. Mensah

78'

K. Čížek← B. Makanda

84'

N. Gernhardt← A. Natali

88'

S. Đedović← E. Owen

90'

A. Stepanov

Bayer

Hoffenheim

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

Manager: Sergi Runge

46'▲J. Mensah←▼A. Sarco

59'▲J. Kurowski←▼F. Pohl

84'▲N. Gernhardt←▼A. Natali

88'▲S. Đedović←▼E. Owen

Bayer Leverkusen U19 substitutes

MensahKurowskiGernhardtĐedovićSchrief

Manager: T. Nubbemeyer

46'▲V. Taschetta←▼G. Pelzer

59'▲B. Makanda←▼M. Moore

59'▲L. Wagenbach←▼K. Syutin

78'▲K. Čížek←▼B. Makanda

Hoffenheim U19 substitutes

TaschettaMakandaWagenbachČížekGebertProvvidoTheuer