Hoffenheim U19 9–1 Astoria Walldorf U19

Hoffenheim U19

FT

9 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Astoria Walldorf U19

B. Makanda 80' (pen)

M. Faß 73', 57'

M. Moerstedt 60', 50', 46', 45+2'

P. Hennrich 43' (pen)

B. Huber 1'

M. Hütter 69'

4/16/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - Preliminary Round - 3Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hoffenheim U1966%

×Draw17%

Astoria Walldorf U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hoffenheim U19Expected goals in this matchAstoria Walldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.66

1.31

Hoffenheim U19

2.66

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.31

Hoffenheim U19 creates 103% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 23 away

3.14

creates per match

1.26

1.37

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Hoffenheim U19

3.14

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.26

allows per match

Hoffenheim U19

1.37

Astoria Walldorf U19

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Astoria Walldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoffenheim U19 ↓

Astoria Walldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Hoffenheim U19 or draw

83%

Hoffenheim U19 or Astoria Walldorf U19

83%

Draw or Astoria Walldorf U19

34%

Winning margin

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+

45%

Astoria Walldorf U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals

93%

Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals

74%

Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals

49%

Astoria Walldorf U19 1+ goals

73%

Astoria Walldorf U19 2+ goals

38%

Astoria Walldorf U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)

79%

Astoria Walldorf U19 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoffenheim U19 at home — creates 3.14, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

Astoria Walldorf U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoffenheim U19 attack 3.14 + Astoria Walldorf U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.66

Astoria Walldorf U19 attack 1.26 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Hoffenheim U19 scores more

66%

level

17%

Astoria Walldorf U19 scores more

17%

Hoffenheim U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

B. Huber

33'

I. Okwubor← L. Kritter

39'

M. Pignotti← E. Bulut

43'

P. HennrichPenalty

45+2'

M. Moerstedt

46'

M. Moerstedt

50'

M. Moerstedt

54'

L. Strobl← D. Dağdeviren

54'

M. Rehuš← Y. Hör

57'

M. Faß

60'

M. Moerstedt

63'

D. Arnst← L. Weik

63'

L. Krasniqi← P. Hennrich

69'

M. Hütter

73'

M. Faß

77'

B. Makanda← F. Micheler

77'

A. Dönmez← F. Wagner

77'

J. Thunert← N. Wannemacher

80'

B. MakandaPenalty

Hoffenheim

Astoria

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽4

⚽2

Manager: S. Schmitt

54'▲L. Strobl←▼D. Dağdeviren

54'▲M. Rehuš←▼Y. Hör

63'▲D. Arnst←▼L. Weik

63'▲L. Krasniqi←▼P. Hennrich

77'▲B. Makanda←▼F. Micheler

Hoffenheim U19 substitutes

StroblRehušArnstKrasniqiMakandaDoucouré-TandiangPhilipp

Manager: Roberto Pinto

33'▲I. Okwubor←▼L. Kritter

39'▲M. Pignotti←▼E. Bulut

77'▲A. Dönmez←▼F. Wagner

77'▲J. Thunert←▼N. Wannemacher

Astoria Walldorf U19 substitutes

OkwuborPignottiDönmezThunertKorotkoSalihuOnohiol

Match Recap: Hoffenheim U19 vs Astoria Walldorf U19

Hoffenheim U19 beat Astoria Walldorf U19 9-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 16, 2023.

Goals: B. Huber (1'), P. Hennrich (43' pen), M. Moerstedt (45+2', 46', 50', 60'), M. Faß (57', 73'), M. Hütter (69'), B. Makanda (80' pen).

The match was played at Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion in Sinsheim.

Hoffenheim U19 vs Astoria Walldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hoffenheim U19 vs Astoria Walldorf U19