Astoria Walldorf U19 3–3 Hoffenheim U19

Astoria Walldorf U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Hoffenheim U19

J. Boziaris 54', 43'

S. Belvari 5'

J. Knollmüller 86'

T. Bischof 27'

U. Tohumcu 24' (pen)

4/20/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 19Dietmar-Hopp-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Astoria Walldorf U1923%

×Draw18%

Hoffenheim U1959%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Astoria Walldorf U19Expected goals in this matchHoffenheim U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

2.75

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.71

Hoffenheim U19

2.75

Hoffenheim U19 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 71 away

1.65

creates per match

2.68

2.83

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.65

Hoffenheim U19

2.68

allows per match

Astoria Walldorf U19

2.83

Hoffenheim U19

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Astoria Walldorf U19+0.00on par

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astoria Walldorf U19 ↓

Hoffenheim U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Astoria Walldorf U19 or draw

41%

Astoria Walldorf U19 or Hoffenheim U19

82%

Draw or Hoffenheim U19

77%

Winning margin

Astoria Walldorf U19 wins by 2+

11%

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Astoria Walldorf U19 1+ goals

82%

Astoria Walldorf U19 2+ goals

51%

Astoria Walldorf U19 3+ goals

24%

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals

93%

Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals

75%

Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Astoria Walldorf U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astoria Walldorf U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.83 · 23 matches

Hoffenheim U19 away — creates 2.68, concedes 1.76 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astoria Walldorf U19 attack 1.65 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.71

Hoffenheim U19 attack 2.68 + Astoria Walldorf U19 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Astoria Walldorf U19 scores more

23%

level

18%

Hoffenheim U19 scores more

59%

Hoffenheim U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

S. Belvari

24'

U. TohumcuPenalty

27'

T. Bischof

43'

J. Boziaris

54'

J. Boziaris

58'

L. Leuze← T. Ottilinger

58'

M. Kambala← L. Gebauer

66'

J. Laboard← S. Belvari

66'

J. Knollmüller← D. Obiogumu

74'

M. Collins← J. Boziaris

81'

N. Melder← V. Kim

83'

A. Camara← R. Bočs

86'

F. Wagner← L. Safranek

86'

J. Knollmüller

90'

M. Menges

Astoria

Hoffenheim

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Boziaris

⚽

▼

Belvari

▼

Safranek

Manager: Roberto Pinto

66'▲J. Laboard←▼S. Belvari

74'▲M. Collins←▼J. Boziaris

81'▲N. Melder←▼V. Kim

86'▲F. Wagner←▼L. Safranek

Astoria Walldorf U19 substitutes

LaboardCollinsMelderWagnerHilkeMehrWannemacher

Manager: M. Kienle

58'▲L. Leuze←▼T. Ottilinger

58'▲M. Kambala←▼L. Gebauer

66'▲J. Knollmüller←▼D. Obiogumu

83'▲A. Camara←▼R. Bočs

Hoffenheim U19 substitutes

LeuzeKambalaKnollmüllerCamaraCarnierHaskajSiegers

U19 Bundesliga: Astoria Walldorf U19 3–3 Hoffenheim U19

Astoria Walldorf U19 and Hoffenheim U19 drew 3-3 in U19 Bundesliga on April 20, 2022.

Goals: S. Belvari (5'), U. Tohumcu (24' pen), T. Bischof (27'), J. Boziaris (43', 54'), J. Knollmüller (86').

The match was played at Dietmar-Hopp-Sportpark in Walldorf.

Astoria Walldorf U19 vs Hoffenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Astoria Walldorf U19 3–3 Hoffenheim U19