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Hoffenheim U19 vs 1860 München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hoffenheim U19
Hoffenheim U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
1860 München U19
1860 München U19
8/27/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 4Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Hoffenheim U1960%
×Draw18%
1860 München U1922%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoffenheim U19
2.61
1860 München U19
1.54

Hoffenheim U19 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 48 away

creates per match

Hoffenheim U19
3.14
1860 München U19
1.71

allows per match

Hoffenheim U19
1.36
1860 München U19
2.08

finishing

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par
1860 München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoffenheim U19 ↓

1860 München U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Hoffenheim U19 or draw
78%
Hoffenheim U19 or 1860 München U19
82%
Draw or 1860 München U19
40%

Winning margin

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+
39%
1860 München U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals
93%
Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals
73%
Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals
47%
1860 München U19 1+ goals
79%
1860 München U19 2+ goals
45%
1860 München U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)
73%
1860 München U19 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoffenheim U19 at home — creates 3.14, concedes 1.36 · 74 matches

1860 München U19 away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoffenheim U19 attack 3.14 + 1860 München U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.61

1860 München U19 attack 1.71 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hoffenheim U19 scores more
60%
level
18%
1860 München U19 scores more
22%

Hoffenheim U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Hoffenheim U19 1–2 1860 München U19

1860 München U19 beat Hoffenheim U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion in Sinsheim.