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1860 München U19 vs Hoffenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

1860 München U19
1860 München U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hoffenheim U19
Hoffenheim U19
2/17/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 17Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

1860 München U1933%
×Draw21%
Hoffenheim U1946%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1860 München U19
1.82
Hoffenheim U19
2.15

Hoffenheim U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 71 away

creates per match

1860 München U19
1.88
Hoffenheim U19
2.68

allows per match

1860 München U19
1.61
Hoffenheim U19
1.76

finishing

1860 München U19+0.00on par
Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 München U19 ↓

Hoffenheim U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

1860 München U19 or draw
54%
1860 München U19 or Hoffenheim U19
79%
Draw or Hoffenheim U19
67%

Winning margin

1860 München U19 wins by 2+
17%
Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

1860 München U19 1+ goals
84%
1860 München U19 2+ goals
54%
1860 München U19 3+ goals
27%
Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals
88%
Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals
63%
Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

1860 München U19 (draw refunded)
42%
Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 München U19 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.61 · 49 matches

Hoffenheim U19 away — creates 2.68, concedes 1.76 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 München U19 attack 1.88 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.82

Hoffenheim U19 attack 2.68 + 1860 München U19 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

1860 München U19 scores more
33%
level
21%
Hoffenheim U19 scores more
46%

Hoffenheim U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: 1860 München U19 1–2 Hoffenheim U19

Hoffenheim U19 beat 1860 München U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Platz 5 in München.