Hoffenheim II 3–2 FC 08 Homburg: Result & Stats

Hoffenheim II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

FC 08 Homburg

5/2/2025

League #86 · Südwest - 32Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Hoffenheim II45%

×Draw21%

FC 08 Homburg34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hoffenheim IIExpected goals in this matchFC 08 Homburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.81

Hoffenheim II

2.12

FC 08 Homburg

1.81

Hoffenheim II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

2.33

creates per match

2.18

1.44

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Hoffenheim II

2.33

FC 08 Homburg

2.18

allows per match

Hoffenheim II

1.44

FC 08 Homburg

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hoffenheim II+0.00on par

FC 08 Homburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoffenheim II ↓

FC 08 Homburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Hoffenheim II or draw

66%

Hoffenheim II or FC 08 Homburg

79%

Draw or FC 08 Homburg

55%

Winning margin

Hoffenheim II wins by 2+

26%

FC 08 Homburg wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hoffenheim II 1+ goals

88%

Hoffenheim II 2+ goals

62%

Hoffenheim II 3+ goals

35%

FC 08 Homburg 1+ goals

84%

FC 08 Homburg 2+ goals

54%

FC 08 Homburg 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Hoffenheim II (draw refunded)

57%

FC 08 Homburg (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoffenheim II at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

FC 08 Homburg away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoffenheim II attack 2.33 + FC 08 Homburg defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.12

FC 08 Homburg attack 2.18 + Hoffenheim II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hoffenheim II scores more

45%

level

21%

FC 08 Homburg scores more

34%

Hoffenheim II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hoffenheim II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff