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Hoffenheim II vs FC 08 Homburg — League #86 2026

Hoffenheim II
Hoffenheim II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC 08 Homburg
FC 08 Homburg
12/2/2023League #86League #86 · Südwest - 20Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hoffenheim II31%
×Draw21%
FC 08 Homburg48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoffenheim II
1.70
FC 08 Homburg
2.15

FC 08 Homburg creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Hoffenheim II
1.83
FC 08 Homburg
2.29

allows per match

Hoffenheim II
2.00
FC 08 Homburg
1.57

finishing

Hoffenheim II+0.00on par
FC 08 Homburg+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoffenheim II ↓

FC 08 Homburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Hoffenheim II or draw
52%
Hoffenheim II or FC 08 Homburg
79%
Draw or FC 08 Homburg
69%

Winning margin

Hoffenheim II wins by 2+
15%
FC 08 Homburg wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Hoffenheim II 1+ goals
82%
Hoffenheim II 2+ goals
51%
Hoffenheim II 3+ goals
24%
FC 08 Homburg 1+ goals
88%
FC 08 Homburg 2+ goals
63%
FC 08 Homburg 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Hoffenheim II (draw refunded)
39%
FC 08 Homburg (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoffenheim II at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

FC 08 Homburg away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoffenheim II attack 1.83 + FC 08 Homburg defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.70

FC 08 Homburg attack 2.29 + Hoffenheim II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hoffenheim II scores more
31%
level
21%
FC 08 Homburg scores more
48%

FC 08 Homburg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC 08 Homburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hoffenheim II vs FC 08 Homburg

Hoffenheim II and FC 08 Homburg drew 1-1 in League #86 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion in Sinsheim.