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Hoek vs Groene Ster — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Hoek
Hoek
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Groene Ster
Groene Ster
9/9/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 4Sportpark Denoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hoek62%
×Draw20%
Groene Ster18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoek
2.10
Groene Ster
1.02

Hoek creates 106% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 81 away

creates per match

Hoek
2.38
Groene Ster
0.94

allows per match

Hoek
1.09
Groene Ster
1.83

finishing

Hoek+0.00on par
Groene Ster+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoek ↓

Groene Ster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hoek or draw
82%
Hoek or Groene Ster
80%
Draw or Groene Ster
38%

Winning margin

Hoek wins by 2+
38%
Groene Ster wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hoek 1+ goals
88%
Hoek 2+ goals
62%
Hoek 3+ goals
35%
Groene Ster 1+ goals
64%
Groene Ster 2+ goals
27%
Groene Ster 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hoek (draw refunded)
78%
Groene Ster (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoek at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

Groene Ster away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.83 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoek attack 2.38 + Groene Ster defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.10

Groene Ster attack 0.94 + Hoek defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hoek scores more
62%
level
20%
Groene Ster scores more
18%

Hoek at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hoek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hoek vs Groene Ster

Hoek beat Groene Ster 4-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Denoek in Hoek.