Groene Ster 2–2 Hoek: Result & Stats

Groene Ster

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Hoek

2/3/2024

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 21Sportpark Pronsenbroek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Groene Ster32%

×Draw23%

Hoek45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Groene SterExpected goals in this matchHoek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.79

Groene Ster

1.48

Hoek

1.79

Hoek creates 21% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 34 away

1.52

creates per match

2.03

1.56

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Groene Ster

1.52

Hoek

2.03

allows per match

Groene Ster

1.56

Hoek

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Groene Ster+0.00on par

Hoek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groene Ster ↓

Hoek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Groene Ster or draw

55%

Groene Ster or Hoek

77%

Draw or Hoek

68%

Winning margin

Groene Ster wins by 2+

15%

Hoek wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Groene Ster 1+ goals

77%

Groene Ster 2+ goals

43%

Groene Ster 3+ goals

19%

Hoek 1+ goals

83%

Hoek 2+ goals

53%

Hoek 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Groene Ster (draw refunded)

42%

Hoek (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groene Ster at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.56 · 82 matches

Hoek away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groene Ster attack 1.52 + Hoek defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hoek attack 2.03 + Groene Ster defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Groene Ster scores more

32%

level

23%

Hoek scores more

45%

Hoek at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hoek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff