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Hoek vs Blauw Geel — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Hoek
Hoek
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Blauw Geel
Blauw Geel
4/12/2025Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 29Sportpark Denoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hoek51%
×Draw22%
Blauw Geel27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoek
1.96
Blauw Geel
1.36

Hoek creates 44% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 100 away

creates per match

Hoek
2.38
Blauw Geel
1.64

allows per match

Hoek
1.09
Blauw Geel
1.53

finishing

Hoek+0.00on par
Blauw Geel+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoek ↓

Blauw Geel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hoek or draw
73%
Hoek or Blauw Geel
78%
Draw or Blauw Geel
49%

Winning margin

Hoek wins by 2+
29%
Blauw Geel wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hoek 1+ goals
86%
Hoek 2+ goals
58%
Hoek 3+ goals
31%
Blauw Geel 1+ goals
74%
Blauw Geel 2+ goals
39%
Blauw Geel 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hoek (draw refunded)
66%
Blauw Geel (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoek at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

Blauw Geel away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.53 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoek attack 2.38 + Blauw Geel defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.96

Blauw Geel attack 1.64 + Hoek defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hoek scores more
51%
level
22%
Blauw Geel scores more
27%

Hoek at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hoek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Hoek 0–0 Blauw Geel

Hoek and Blauw Geel drew 0-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Denoek in Hoek.