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Blauw Geel vs Hoek — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Blauw Geel
Blauw Geel
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hoek
Hoek
11/9/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 12Prins Willem Alexander Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Blauw Geel40%
×Draw23%
Hoek38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blauw Geel
1.70
Hoek
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 34 away

creates per match

Blauw Geel
1.96
Hoek
2.03

allows per match

Blauw Geel
1.28
Hoek
1.44

finishing

Blauw Geel+0.00on par
Hoek+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blauw Geel ↓

Hoek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Blauw Geel or draw
62%
Blauw Geel or Hoek
77%
Draw or Hoek
60%

Winning margin

Blauw Geel wins by 2+
20%
Hoek wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Blauw Geel 1+ goals
82%
Blauw Geel 2+ goals
51%
Blauw Geel 3+ goals
24%
Hoek 1+ goals
81%
Hoek 2+ goals
49%
Hoek 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Blauw Geel (draw refunded)
51%
Hoek (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blauw Geel at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.28 · 98 matches

Hoek away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blauw Geel attack 1.96 + Hoek defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.70

Hoek attack 2.03 + Blauw Geel defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Blauw Geel scores more
40%
level
23%
Hoek scores more
38%

Blauw Geel at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Blauw Geel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Blauw Geel 2–1 Hoek

Blauw Geel beat Hoek 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Prins Willem Alexander Sportpark in Veghel.