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Hoek vs Baronie — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Hoek
Hoek
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Baronie
Baronie
12/16/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 17Sportpark Denoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hoek66%
×Draw18%
Baronie16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoek
2.47
Baronie
1.15

Hoek creates 115% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Hoek
2.38
Baronie
1.21

allows per match

Hoek
1.09
Baronie
2.56

finishing

Hoek+0.00on par
Baronie+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoek ↓

Baronie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Hoek or draw
84%
Hoek or Baronie
82%
Draw or Baronie
34%

Winning margin

Hoek wins by 2+
44%
Baronie wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hoek 1+ goals
91%
Hoek 2+ goals
70%
Hoek 3+ goals
44%
Baronie 1+ goals
68%
Baronie 2+ goals
32%
Baronie 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hoek (draw refunded)
80%
Baronie (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoek at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

Baronie away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoek attack 2.38 + Baronie defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.47

Baronie attack 1.21 + Hoek defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Hoek scores more
66%
level
18%
Baronie scores more
16%

Hoek at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Hoek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Hoek 3–1 Baronie

Hoek beat Baronie 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Denoek in Hoek.