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Baronie vs Hoek — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Baronie
Baronie
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hoek
Hoek
5/25/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 34Stadion De Blauwe Kei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Baronie23%
×Draw21%
Hoek56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baronie
1.27
Hoek
2.10

Hoek creates 65% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Baronie
1.09
Hoek
2.03

allows per match

Baronie
2.18
Hoek
1.44

finishing

Baronie+0.00on par
Hoek+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baronie ↓

Hoek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Baronie or draw
44%
Baronie or Hoek
79%
Draw or Hoek
77%

Winning margin

Baronie wins by 2+
9%
Hoek wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Baronie 1+ goals
72%
Baronie 2+ goals
36%
Baronie 3+ goals
14%
Hoek 1+ goals
88%
Hoek 2+ goals
62%
Hoek 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Baronie (draw refunded)
29%
Hoek (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baronie at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Hoek away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baronie attack 1.09 + Hoek defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hoek attack 2.03 + Baronie defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Baronie scores more
23%
level
21%
Hoek scores more
56%

Hoek at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hoek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Baronie 2–1 Hoek

Baronie beat Hoek 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion De Blauwe Kei in Breda.