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Hoek vs Ajax Amateurs — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hoek
Hoek
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ajax Amateurs
Ajax Amateurs
3/5/2022Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 17Sportpark Denoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Hoek53%
×Draw21%
Ajax Amateurs26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoek
2.07
Ajax Amateurs
1.41

Hoek creates 47% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 49 away

creates per match

Hoek
2.10
Ajax Amateurs
1.12

allows per match

Hoek
1.69
Ajax Amateurs
2.04

finishing

Hoek+0.00on par
Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoek ↓

Ajax Amateurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hoek or draw
74%
Hoek or Ajax Amateurs
79%
Draw or Ajax Amateurs
47%

Winning margin

Hoek wins by 2+
31%
Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hoek 1+ goals
87%
Hoek 2+ goals
61%
Hoek 3+ goals
34%
Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals
76%
Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals
41%
Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hoek (draw refunded)
67%
Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoek at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.69 · 48 matches

Ajax Amateurs away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoek attack 2.10 + Ajax Amateurs defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.07

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.12 + Hoek defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hoek scores more
53%
level
21%
Ajax Amateurs scores more
26%

Hoek at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hoek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Hoek 1–0 Ajax Amateurs

Hoek beat Ajax Amateurs 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Denoek in Hoek.