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Ajax Amateurs vs Hoek — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Ajax Amateurs
Ajax Amateurs
CANC
13:30
Hoek
Hoek
1/23/2021Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 18Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ajax Amateurs39%
×Draw23%
Hoek39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax Amateurs
1.73
Hoek
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 49 away

creates per match

Ajax Amateurs
1.59
Hoek
1.80

allows per match

Ajax Amateurs
1.67
Hoek
1.86

finishing

Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par
Hoek+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Amateurs ↓

Hoek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ajax Amateurs or draw
61%
Ajax Amateurs or Hoek
77%
Draw or Hoek
61%

Winning margin

Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+
20%
Hoek wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals
82%
Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals
52%
Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals
25%
Hoek 1+ goals
82%
Hoek 2+ goals
52%
Hoek 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)
50%
Hoek (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Amateurs at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

Hoek away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.86 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.59 + Hoek defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.73

Hoek attack 1.80 + Ajax Amateurs defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ajax Amateurs scores more
39%
level
23%
Hoek scores more
39%

Ajax Amateurs at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ajax Amateurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ajax Amateurs face Hoek (Derde Divisie - Saturday)

Derde Divisie - Saturday returns with Ajax Amateurs hosting Hoek. Match starts January 23, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ajax Amateurs host Hoek at Sportpark De Toekomst.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.