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Hódmezővásárhely vs Cegledi VSE — NB III - Northwest 2019

Hódmezővásárhely
Hódmezővásárhely
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
2/12/2023NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 21Hódmezővásárhelyi Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Hódmezővásárhely51%
×Draw23%
Cegledi VSE26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hódmezővásárhely
1.82
Cegledi VSE
1.23

Hódmezővásárhely creates 48% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 36 away

creates per match

Hódmezővásárhely
1.53
Cegledi VSE
1.06

allows per match

Hódmezővásárhely
1.40
Cegledi VSE
2.11

finishing

Hódmezővásárhely+0.00on par
Cegledi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hódmezővásárhely ↓

Cegledi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hódmezővásárhely or draw
74%
Hódmezővásárhely or Cegledi VSE
77%
Draw or Cegledi VSE
49%

Winning margin

Hódmezővásárhely wins by 2+
28%
Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hódmezővásárhely 1+ goals
84%
Hódmezővásárhely 2+ goals
54%
Hódmezővásárhely 3+ goals
27%
Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
71%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
35%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hódmezővásárhely (draw refunded)
66%
Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hódmezővásárhely at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.40 · 55 matches

Cegledi VSE away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.11 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hódmezővásárhely attack 1.53 + Cegledi VSE defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.82

Cegledi VSE attack 1.06 + Hódmezővásárhely defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hódmezővásárhely scores more
51%
level
23%
Cegledi VSE scores more
26%

Hódmezővásárhely at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hódmezővásárhely will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hódmezővásárhely vs Cegledi VSE

Hódmezővásárhely beat Cegledi VSE 1-0 in NB III - Northwest on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Hódmezővásárhelyi Városi Stadion in Hódmezővásárhely.