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Cegledi VSE vs Hódmezővásárhely — NB III - Southeast 2023

Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Hódmezővásárhely
Hódmezővásárhely
9/3/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 6Malomtó széli sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cegledi VSE15%
×Draw18%
Hódmezővásárhely67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cegledi VSE
1.08
Hódmezővásárhely
2.42

Hódmezővásárhely creates 124% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Cegledi VSE
0.80
Hódmezővásárhely
1.36

allows per match

Cegledi VSE
3.47
Hódmezővásárhely
1.36

finishing

Cegledi VSE+0.00on par
Hódmezővásárhely+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cegledi VSE ↓

Hódmezővásárhely →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Cegledi VSE or draw
33%
Cegledi VSE or Hódmezővásárhely
82%
Draw or Hódmezővásárhely
85%

Winning margin

Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
5%
Hódmezővásárhely wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
66%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
29%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
10%
Hódmezővásárhely 1+ goals
91%
Hódmezővásárhely 2+ goals
69%
Hódmezővásárhely 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
19%
Hódmezővásárhely (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cegledi VSE at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

Hódmezővásárhely away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cegledi VSE attack 0.80 + Hódmezővásárhely defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.08

Hódmezővásárhely attack 1.36 + Cegledi VSE defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Cegledi VSE scores more
15%
level
18%
Hódmezővásárhely scores more
67%

Hódmezővásárhely at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Hódmezővásárhely will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cegledi VSE vs Hódmezővásárhely

Hódmezővásárhely beat Cegledi VSE 2-1 in NB III - Southeast on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Malomtó széli sporttelep in Cegléd.