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Hódmezővásárhely vs Bekescsaba 1912 — NB III - Southeast 2023

Hódmezővásárhely
Hódmezővásárhely
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bekescsaba 1912
Bekescsaba 1912
11/18/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 16Hódmezővásárhelyi Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hódmezővásárhely22%
×Draw22%
Bekescsaba 191256%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hódmezővásárhely
1.11
Bekescsaba 1912
1.92

Bekescsaba 1912 creates 73% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hódmezővásárhely
1.69
Bekescsaba 1912
2.53

allows per match

Hódmezővásárhely
1.31
Bekescsaba 1912
0.53

finishing

Hódmezővásárhely+0.00on par
Bekescsaba 1912+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hódmezővásárhely ↓

Bekescsaba 1912 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hódmezővásárhely or draw
44%
Hódmezővásárhely or Bekescsaba 1912
78%
Draw or Bekescsaba 1912
78%

Winning margin

Hódmezővásárhely wins by 2+
8%
Bekescsaba 1912 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Hódmezővásárhely 1+ goals
67%
Hódmezővásárhely 2+ goals
30%
Hódmezővásárhely 3+ goals
10%
Bekescsaba 1912 1+ goals
85%
Bekescsaba 1912 2+ goals
57%
Bekescsaba 1912 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Hódmezővásárhely (draw refunded)
28%
Bekescsaba 1912 (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hódmezővásárhely at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.31 · 45 matches

Bekescsaba 1912 away — creates 2.53, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hódmezővásárhely attack 1.69 + Bekescsaba 1912 defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.11

Bekescsaba 1912 attack 2.53 + Hódmezővásárhely defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hódmezővásárhely scores more
22%
level
22%
Bekescsaba 1912 scores more
56%

Bekescsaba 1912 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bekescsaba 1912 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hódmezővásárhely vs Bekescsaba 1912

Bekescsaba 1912 beat Hódmezővásárhely 1-0 in NB III - Southeast on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Hódmezővásárhelyi Városi Stadion in Hódmezővásárhely.