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Bekescsaba 1912 vs Hódmezővásárhely — NB III - Southeast 2023

Bekescsaba 1912
Bekescsaba 1912
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Hódmezővásárhely
Hódmezővásárhely
7/30/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 1Kórház utcai stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bekescsaba 191263%
×Draw19%
Hódmezővásárhely17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bekescsaba 1912
2.28
Hódmezővásárhely
1.11

Bekescsaba 1912 creates 105% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Bekescsaba 1912
3.20
Hódmezővásárhely
1.36

allows per match

Bekescsaba 1912
0.87
Hódmezővásárhely
1.36

finishing

Bekescsaba 1912+0.00on par
Hódmezővásárhely+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bekescsaba 1912 ↓

Hódmezővásárhely →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bekescsaba 1912 or draw
83%
Bekescsaba 1912 or Hódmezővásárhely
81%
Draw or Hódmezővásárhely
37%

Winning margin

Bekescsaba 1912 wins by 2+
41%
Hódmezővásárhely wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bekescsaba 1912 1+ goals
90%
Bekescsaba 1912 2+ goals
66%
Bekescsaba 1912 3+ goals
39%
Hódmezővásárhely 1+ goals
67%
Hódmezővásárhely 2+ goals
30%
Hódmezővásárhely 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bekescsaba 1912 (draw refunded)
78%
Hódmezővásárhely (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bekescsaba 1912 at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Hódmezővásárhely away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bekescsaba 1912 attack 3.20 + Hódmezővásárhely defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.28

Hódmezővásárhely attack 1.36 + Bekescsaba 1912 defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Bekescsaba 1912 scores more
63%
level
19%
Hódmezővásárhely scores more
17%

Bekescsaba 1912 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bekescsaba 1912 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bekescsaba 1912 vs Hódmezővásárhely

Bekescsaba 1912 beat Hódmezővásárhely 3-1 in NB III - Southeast on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Kórház utcai stadion in Békéscsaba.