Hodio 1–0 Abeilles: Result & Stats

Hodio

FT

1 – 0

Abeilles

5/17/2025

Championnat National · Group A - 31Stade de Comè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hodio43%

×Draw31%

Abeilles26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HodioExpected goals in this matchAbeilles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.79

Hodio

1.10

Abeilles

0.79

Hodio creates 39% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 30 away

1.12

creates per match

0.77

0.82

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Hodio

1.12

Abeilles

0.77

allows per match

Hodio

0.82

Abeilles

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hodio+0.00on par

Abeilles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hodio ↓

Abeilles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Hodio or draw

74%

Hodio or Abeilles

69%

Draw or Abeilles

57%

Winning margin

Hodio wins by 2+

18%

Abeilles wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hodio 1+ goals

67%

Hodio 2+ goals

30%

Hodio 3+ goals

10%

Abeilles 1+ goals

55%

Abeilles 2+ goals

19%

Abeilles 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Hodio (draw refunded)

62%

Abeilles (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hodio at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.82 · 93 matches

Abeilles away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hodio attack 1.12 + Abeilles defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Abeilles attack 0.77 + Hodio defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hodio scores more

43%

level

31%

Abeilles scores more

26%

Hodio at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hodio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff