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Abeilles vs Hodio — Championnat National 2019

Abeilles
Abeilles
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hodio
Hodio
11/25/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 8Stade Tchaourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Abeilles35%
×Draw31%
Hodio34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abeilles
1.00
Hodio
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 93 away

creates per match

Abeilles
1.03
Hodio
0.85

allows per match

Abeilles
1.10
Hodio
0.98

finishing

Abeilles+0.00on par
Hodio+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abeilles ↓

Hodio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Abeilles or draw
66%
Abeilles or Hodio
69%
Draw or Hodio
65%

Winning margin

Abeilles wins by 2+
13%
Hodio wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Abeilles 1+ goals
63%
Abeilles 2+ goals
26%
Abeilles 3+ goals
8%
Hodio 1+ goals
62%
Hodio 2+ goals
26%
Hodio 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Abeilles (draw refunded)
51%
Hodio (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abeilles at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Hodio away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.98 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abeilles attack 1.03 + Hodio defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.00

Hodio attack 0.85 + Abeilles defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Abeilles scores more
35%
level
31%
Hodio scores more
34%

Abeilles at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Abeilles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abeilles vs Hodio

Abeilles and Hodio drew 0-0 in Championnat National on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Tchaourou in Tchaourou.