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hodd vs Kristiansund BK — 1. Division 2018

hodd
hodd
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK
10/7/20231. Division1. Division · Round 26Nye Høddvoll Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

hodd32%
×Draw24%
Kristiansund BK44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

hodd
1.40
Kristiansund BK
1.66

Kristiansund BK creates 19% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 16 away

creates per match

hodd
1.29
Kristiansund BK
1.94

allows per match

hodd
1.37
Kristiansund BK
1.50

finishing

hodd+0.00on par
Kristiansund BK+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

hodd ↓

Kristiansund BK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

hodd or draw
56%
hodd or Kristiansund BK
76%
Draw or Kristiansund BK
68%

Winning margin

hodd wins by 2+
15%
Kristiansund BK wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

hodd 1+ goals
75%
hodd 2+ goals
41%
hodd 3+ goals
17%
Kristiansund BK 1+ goals
81%
Kristiansund BK 2+ goals
49%
Kristiansund BK 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

hodd (draw refunded)
43%
Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

hodd at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

hodd attack 1.29 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Kristiansund BK attack 1.94 + hodd defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

hodd scores more
32%
level
24%
Kristiansund BK scores more
44%

Kristiansund BK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kristiansund BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: hodd vs Kristiansund BK

Kristiansund BK beat hodd 1-0 in 1. Division on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Nye Høddvoll Stadion in Ulsteinvik.