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Hobart Utd. vs Glenorchy Knights U21 — Tasmania Southern Championship 2026

Hobart Utd.
Hobart Utd.
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Glenorchy Knights U21
Glenorchy Knights U21
6/29/2024Tasmania Southern ChampionshipTasmania Southern Championship · Round 12Gunn Oval Brighton

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hobart Utd.68%
×Draw14%
Glenorchy Knights U2118%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hobart Utd.
3.93
Glenorchy Knights U21
2.10

Hobart Utd. creates 87% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hobart Utd.
2.27
Glenorchy Knights U21
1.07

allows per match

Hobart Utd.
3.12
Glenorchy Knights U21
5.60

finishing

Hobart Utd.+0.00on par
Glenorchy Knights U21+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hobart Utd. ↓

Glenorchy Knights U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–22%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
83%17%4.5
68%32%

Double chance

Hobart Utd. or draw
82%
Hobart Utd. or Glenorchy Knights U21
86%
Draw or Glenorchy Knights U21
32%

Winning margin

Hobart Utd. wins by 2+
50%
Glenorchy Knights U21 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hobart Utd. 1+ goals
98%
Hobart Utd. 2+ goals
89%
Hobart Utd. 3+ goals
72%
Glenorchy Knights U21 1+ goals
88%
Glenorchy Knights U21 2+ goals
62%
Glenorchy Knights U21 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Hobart Utd. (draw refunded)
79%
Glenorchy Knights U21 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hobart Utd. at home — creates 2.27, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

Glenorchy Knights U21 away — creates 1.07, concedes 5.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hobart Utd. attack 2.27 + Glenorchy Knights U21 defence 5.60 → ÷2 → 3.93

Glenorchy Knights U21 attack 1.07 + Hobart Utd. defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Hobart Utd. scores more
68%
level
14%
Glenorchy Knights U21 scores more
18%

Hobart Utd. at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Hobart Utd. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hobart Utd. vs Glenorchy Knights U21

Hobart Utd. beat Glenorchy Knights U21 4-1 in Tasmania Southern Championship on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Gunn Oval Brighton in Pontville.