Glenorchy Knights U21 1–6 Hobart Utd.

Glenorchy Knights U21

FT

1 – 6

Hobart Utd.

8/30/2024

Tasmania Southern Championship · Round 21KGV Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Glenorchy Knights U2131%

×Draw17%

Hobart Utd.52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Glenorchy Knights U21Expected goals in this matchHobart Utd.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.72

3.45

Glenorchy Knights U21

2.72

Hobart Utd.

3.45

Hobart Utd. creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

2.05

creates per match

2.43

4.47

allows per match

3.39

creates per match

Glenorchy Knights U21

2.05

Hobart Utd.

2.43

allows per match

Glenorchy Knights U21

4.47

Hobart Utd.

3.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Glenorchy Knights U21+0.00on par

Hobart Utd.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over94
Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes90
No10

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glenorchy Knights U21 ↓

Hobart Utd. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–01%

1–12%

1–24%

1–34%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–35%

3–45%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–34%

4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

94%6%3.5

85%15%4.5

71%29%

Double chance

Glenorchy Knights U21 or draw

48%

Glenorchy Knights U21 or Hobart Utd.

83%

Draw or Hobart Utd.

69%

Winning margin

Glenorchy Knights U21 wins by 2+

17%

Hobart Utd. wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Glenorchy Knights U21 1+ goals

93%

Glenorchy Knights U21 2+ goals

75%

Glenorchy Knights U21 3+ goals

50%

Hobart Utd. 1+ goals

97%

Hobart Utd. 2+ goals

85%

Hobart Utd. 3+ goals

65%

Draw no bet

Glenorchy Knights U21 (draw refunded)

38%

Hobart Utd. (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

88%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glenorchy Knights U21 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 4.47 · 19 matches

Hobart Utd. away — creates 2.43, concedes 3.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glenorchy Knights U21 attack 2.05 + Hobart Utd. defence 3.39 → ÷2 → 2.72

Hobart Utd. attack 2.43 + Glenorchy Knights U21 defence 4.47 → ÷2 → 3.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Glenorchy Knights U21 scores more

31%

level

17%

Hobart Utd. scores more

52%

Hobart Utd. at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hobart Utd. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff