Hobart City 8–3 Glenorchy Knights U21

Hobart City

FT

8 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Glenorchy Knights U21

8/3/2024

Tasmania Southern Championship · Round 17Sandown Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hobart City81%

×Draw10%

Glenorchy Knights U219%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hobart CityExpected goals in this matchGlenorchy Knights U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.29

1.46

Hobart City

4.29

Glenorchy Knights U21

1.46

Hobart City creates 194% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 16 away

2.78

creates per match

1.00

1.93

allows per match

5.81

creates per match

Hobart City

2.78

Glenorchy Knights U21

1.00

allows per match

Hobart City

1.93

Glenorchy Knights U21

5.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hobart City+0.00on par

Glenorchy Knights U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hobart City ↓

Glenorchy Knights U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–12%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–18%

4–26%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

80%20%4.5

63%37%

Double chance

Hobart City or draw

91%

Hobart City or Glenorchy Knights U21

90%

Draw or Glenorchy Knights U21

19%

Winning margin

Hobart City wins by 2+

66%

Glenorchy Knights U21 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Hobart City 1+ goals

98%

Hobart City 2+ goals

92%

Hobart City 3+ goals

77%

Glenorchy Knights U21 1+ goals

77%

Glenorchy Knights U21 2+ goals

43%

Glenorchy Knights U21 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Hobart City (draw refunded)

91%

Glenorchy Knights U21 (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hobart City at home — creates 2.78, concedes 1.93 · 27 matches

Glenorchy Knights U21 away — creates 1.00, concedes 5.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hobart City attack 2.78 + Glenorchy Knights U21 defence 5.81 → ÷2 → 4.29

Glenorchy Knights U21 attack 1.00 + Hobart City defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Hobart City scores more

81%

level

10%

Glenorchy Knights U21 scores more

9%

Hobart City at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Hobart City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff